Cubs opening day is tomorrow and I’d be remiss if I didn’t bury this take before the season gets going. Because let there be no doubt, I need to get over the fact that Cam Smith looks like just about the best baseball player of all time.
As a refresher – the Cubs traded 6 years of Cam Smith for 1 year of Kyle Tucker.
Cam Smith was the first round pick from this last summer’s draft out of Florida State. He’s an athletic infielder with a huge frame and projects to be a long-term 3rd baseman.
The Cubs have their own 3rd baseman of the future in Matt Shaw, and desperately needed an impact player to hit in the middle of the lineup aka Kyle Tucker.
We all agreed then and still agree now that the Cubs have long needed an MVP caliber player since Kris Bryant stopped being an MVP caliber player.
So we traded Cam Smith and everyone said Good thing it wasn’t Matt Shaw.
Now fast forward a couple months and turns out Cam Smith might break camp with the Astros – a sentence I literally cannot believe I’m typing. So let me repeat it.
Cam Smith might break camp with the Astros.
Again – Cubs opening day is tomorrow so I don’t want to lament too hard on this. But it all kinda rolls up together into our long-term decision-making so let’s just get it out of the way:
Cam Smith looks like a perennial All Star and it’s gonna suck gross balls to watch him dominate the AL West for years.
Sure – it’s a small sample size.
But we’re talking about a guy who entered Big League Spring Training with just 20 plate appearances at AA. So while small sample this spring, it’s also the first time he’s even seen big league pitching and he’s 11-26 with 5 walks against 6 strikeouts.
So far Cam Smith’s Walks+Hits vs. Strikeouts ratio is 2.67
Juan Soto was 2.56x last year.
My point is you don’t need to see much more to know he’s wasting time in the minor leagues, and that’s downright incredible.
For the Cubs, I want to take some positivity out of this. Otherwise it’s going to haunt me until my death and I don’t want that to happen.
So here’s the good things:
- The Cubs amateur scouting is crushing it lately, and that’s huge when everyone around the league is gutting amateur scouting resources. So the fact the Cubs are hitting on draft picks and trades as well as they have shows me they’re adapting well to the changing landscape. That’s really good news because there’s always more draft picks and trades to be had. But going back a couple years, the track record is really shaping up to be a tier-1 amateur scouting department
- Tom Ricketts needs to see Kyle Tucker in a Cubs uniform in order to spend $35M+ per season. I am left no other interpretation after years of inactivity. It tells me there’s no amount of PowerPoints from the front office that will convince him. So they went out and just got 1 year of a bonafide MLB modern superstar to show Tom in realtime what that looks like now. It’s a bold strategy but I don’t think Jed Hoyer has any other choice with the lack of consistent spending. the end result is that we’re much closer than we’ve been in recent years to landing that 3-hitter free agent and I really think it’s going to be Kyle Tucker on an extension.
- The only way Cam Smith really hurts me is if any/all of the following conditions are met.
- Matt Shaw is a bust while Cam Smith is awesome
- The Cubs are terrible AND the Astros are good during Cam Smith’s career
- Cam Smith kills us in a World Series and the Cubs lose to the Astros in the process
- Cam Smith is an MVP and hall of famer
- My point is that it’s a really tall order where I can be consistently upset that Cam Smith isn’t a Cub and focal to that is being significantly better than Matt Shaw. And quite frankly that would mean Matt Shaw is a bust and I think that’s borderline impossible based on everything I know
- Last good thing about this = Jed Hoyer had his choice in 3rd basemen and he made it with Matt Shaw over Cam Smith. Like it or not, it’s a good thing we have that much confidence in our long-term 3rd base solution which has been a gaping hole since Kris Bryant left. And in my opinion, it’s the 2nd most important position on the field after shortstop. There’s so many impact plays to be made, and a good-hitting 3rd baseman can change your lineup as much as any position. So while it blows we had to give up a good 3rd baseman to get Kyle Tucker, I just want to remember that we had our choice and Jed picked Matt Shaw. For all intensive purposes, he’s my 3rd baseman for the next decade and Cam Smith’s success only reinforces my conviction in Shaw’s future.
Hopefully that makes sense because Cam Smith looks fucking awesome.
Most importantly though, we have to let it go as soon as possible. It appears that will be tough but it’s absolutely necessary.
My recommendations:
- Support Matt Shaw however you see fit
- Enjoy Kyle Tucker’s brilliance
- Pray to whatever God you believe in that we get an extension
- Encourage Tom Ricketts when you see him on the concourse even though he’s kinda soft
- Don’t hurt Matt Shaw’s obliques
- Leave Cam Smith alone on social media
- And most important: try to forget he ever wore a Tennessee Smokies uniform