Happy St. Patrick’s Day to all who celebrate and welcome back to News & Notes – the #1 World Famous daily Cubs roundup of mostly insignificant items.
Today’s special because it’s the last day of the offseason before tomorrow’s 5am opener with the Dodgers in Tokyo.
I’m excited for the season to start but reluctant in a lot of areas. We have some bad injury concerns in the infield mixed with a brand new bullpen. The trip to Tokyo is a huge burden for the entire organization and could end up hurting the bullpen. I also think there’s a lot of relaxing right now when I would like the younger pitchers competing for the start of the season. And most important is that I just don’t like a season debut two weeks before the regular season starts. Call me soft but I think these should be exhibitions.
Unless of course the Cubs end up sweeping the 2-game series. In that case Rob Manfred’s a bonafide genius who should be celebrated for taking bold & brilliant action.
Unlikely that happens but worth recognizing right now before the season starts.
Here’s some other things on my mind heading into the opener:
1. I want to enjoy this season.
That’s a simple statement and it’s important when you remember that last year was an absolute dumpster fire from June to September. So much that it actually impacted the way I feel about life. Shameful, yes. But true and something I want to move on from as a sports fan. Maybe not so much with the Bears because that’s just 1 game a week and pretty easy to manage.
But baseball is a completely different beast and I would rather just accept now that my heart will be broken and I’m going to get extremely pissed off multiple times about things very far outside my control. That’s inevitable and I want to try to have some fun with it compared to letting the Cubs’ middle relief pitching dictate my happiness.
At the very least I think that’s most fair to my wife and family life.
Here’s the problem: I won’t be able to control myself if the Cubs play well and build expectations that they’re a clean baseball club. If they come out crisp and fresh and win me over, then I’m susceptible to falling so hard in the dog days. So while this all sounds nice on paper, I need to be realistic that good baseball is only going to make matters worse down the stretch.
As such I’m asking you guys to help me on this journey. Help me stay level and have fun and not completely off the deep end when Ben Brown walks 6 in 1 2/3 of dogshit baseball. Somebody, anybody out there, please help.
2. Nico Hoerner & PCA Will Drive The Bus
Remember this in September because I think it’s pretty clear cut and dry. The team will be as good as PCA and Nico dictate. If they’re healthy and explosive, then I think the Cubs make one of the biggest jumps in runs-per-game and it’s because they’re combined for 90 stolen bases and 180 runs. That’s my hunch and I think it all comes down to health.
Around them, I think you’re bound for solid and predictable seasons from the usual suspects. Michael Busch should be steady. Dansby should be improved after healing a knee. Ian Happ is one of the more underrated players. Seiya should be healthy in a DH role with the chance to spell Kyle Tucker. Matt Shaw should struggle but look good at times.
All of that to me is routine and predictable.
The real X factors though are Nico and PCA because they have the highest ceilings compared to projections. But also because they have the most contagious style of play, which is a soft and vague way of calling them spark plugs. They can get the dugout going by taking an extra base and playing their ass off. And in a sport and on a club filled with veteran professionals, that can some times be the difference between scoring the extra run.
All of that to say I am most interested in Nico and PCA out of the entire position group.
3. Extending Kyle Tucker Is The Most Important Thing Tom Ricketts Can Do For The Fans
You can believe me now or wait until Kyle Tucker proves it this summer. But he’s absolutely the most valuable player on this team and one of the best players in baseball.
Everything I just said about Nico and PCA only applies because you have Kyle Tucker hitting 3rd and playing right field. Without him we’re looking at another year of maybe 83 wins.
With him, the Cubs can really stack series wins because he’s such a talented player. And that impact will really show through in close games through all 5 of his tools.
The problem is that he’s only on the Cubs for 1 year, and that’s simply not enough for giving up Cam Smith.
Hopefully Tom Ricketts is smart enough to understand this. And hopefully the front office has been up his ass about the extension because I just don’t see any other way for them to get a super star on the roster. Especially with how Tom’s spending habits have changed compared to the modern mega deals you see so often now.
The only way to convince Tom that it’s necessary is to show Tom it’s necessary by winning 90+ games this year. And maybe if that happens, then maybe there’s a chance Tom changes his position on overpaying free agents. Maybe there’s a world where we don’t take a back seat to the Mets and Dodgers for the next two decades. Maybe Tom actually gives a shit?
There’s only one way to find out and it starts with Kyle Tucker.
If he balls out and Tom lets him walk then I think Jed Hoyer has to resign in conflict. There’s no other choice. It’s Kyle Tucker or bust and I think Jed Hoyer is a genius for creating this situation.
4. Matt Shaw Is Just A Rookie
I know he eats baseballs for breakfast/lunch/dinner but please remember that Matt Shaw is just a rookie with no MLB experience. One of these days he’ll be awesome and that could likely happen very soon. But right now on Monday March 17th, 2025, Matt Shaw hasn’t done shit and that’s perfectly okay.
If it takes longer than you’d like, that’s also perfectly okay.
The most important thing is that Matt Shaw is healthy and assimilated into big league life. After that, everything else will click into place because he’s simply that talented.
Until then, just be patient while he punches out with runners in scoring position because he’s never seen a late-inning big league slider.
He’ll come around the learning curve just fine but I want to be clear that there is a learning curve and it’s definitely not worth getting mad about. Especially when you consider our #1 consideration that I want to enjoy the season. While convenient, getting pissed off at a rookie isn’t going to help me no matter how bad I want to beat the Dodgers tomorrow morning.
So let’s not do that.
Overall season predictions:
- 91-71
- NL Central Champs
- Matt Shaw NL Rookie of the Year
- Kyle Tucker 7.5 bWAR
- Justin Steele better than Shota, but both outstanding again
- Cade Horton starts a playoff game
- Ian Happ hits 30 homers
- Dansby Swanson plays 162 games
- Moises Ballesteros debuts in June
- Jameson Taillon wins 15 games
- Cubs lead MLB in every major defensive metric
- Craig Counsell pisses me off
- Craig Counsell ultimately earns my trust
What say you?