It’s 5pm which means normally this is for Cubs News & Notes – a round up blog of all the miscellaneous things going on in the Cubs universe.
But instead today I want to focus on Pete Crow Armstrong because we talked about him a lot on today’s Monday Morning Cubs Show:
You can check it out if you like podcasts.
For now I want to just focus on Pete because I think it’s really important to understand the player he’s trying to be vs. the player you want him to be.
Specifically – I asked Mahoney today to pick between two Pete Crow Armstrongs:
- Puts the ball on the ground. Steals 50-60 bases. Bunts for hits and doesn’t swing like an asshole for power. Slugging percentage below .400 but OBP in the .360 range and scores a ton of runs.
OR - Hits 25 homers with a 28-30% strikeout rate and a 50% flyball rate. Only steals about half as many bases. OBP is in the .310-.320 range but slugging is around .440. He’s very frustrating but can completely take over games like last night against the Dodgers.
It’s a good question because I think a lot of people want option #1 right now at the top of the batting order. I think there’s a natural inclination to see Pete as a contact-first disruptor on the bases and that’s what we want from our young centerfielder.
But if you watch him play, PCA couldn’t be less interested in that iteration of baseball player.
He rarely bunts. He doesn’t put the ball on the ground. He doesn’t shorten up and poke to left. He doesn’t sit back on offspeed or look up the middle. Basically take the textbook version of PCA that you want to see and then do the complete opposite.
That’s Pete Crow Armstrong right now.
Average MLB flyball rate is 37% while Pete, one of the fastest baseball players in the world, is closer to 50%.
It’s interesting to watch because you can clearly tell he’s trying to hit for power and be a dynamic threat similar to Jacoby Ellsbury where a lot of just want to see Brett Gardner.
And more specifically, it’s in the swings. They’re gigantic and holey and he’s pulling off to right field and honestly it reminds me so much of Willie Mays Hayes in Major League. Drop and give me 20 kinda shit because he’s juicing the batting practice into the top of the net.
The alternative is simple and controlled. It’s shorter and brings more contact so he can deploy his greatest strength: speed.
But it’s been long enough and that’s why I’m bringing this up. It’s obvious he’s trying to be that dynamic power threat and I want to publicly support and endorse the transition because it’s damn near impossible to pull off in the first place.
But if he does it, then we’re talking about a 6-7 WAR player conservatively.
The big difference of course would be in the power and it would probably take almost 2 full seasons for him to get comfortable.
Along the way, we’re bound to see a drastic increase in strikeouts with a corresponding increase in walks. You’ll see more homers and games like last night against the Dodgers. But you’ll also see way too many fly ball outs for an 80 grade runner. He probably won’t hit effectively at the top of the order for much longer than you’d like, and that’s because his skillset won’t be there. Additionally – he’s not going to be a run-producer because he won’t have the bat-barrel skills to justify being in the middle of the order.
Instead, you’re probably looking at the 6 or 7 hitter in the lineup long-term in this scenario.
Overall I think it’s the right move for his career and the Cubs as an organization. But there’s definitely pain along the way when he could be developing as a contact-first hitter. There’s no doubt about it.
Right now I kinda don’t like it as we talked on the MMCS. There’s a lot more stability in the present if he wanted to slap the other way and bunt for hits. But the growth and ceiling is so much lower in the long-term, and he’s simply too talented to just settle in to contact for the sake of settling in. Right now we have the time and space to develop so I think PCA is making the right choice to do that towards dynamic power.
Does any of this make sense?
The best analogy to regular guys I can think of is starting your own business.
You could have a steady job that pays you well and is reliable. That would be PCA hitting for contact and putting the ball on the ground. It’s good work and you’ll be rewarded appropriately.
Alternatively, you could start your own business and one day make a lot more money for your family. But you need to go through some struggles and risks to get there, and all that’s going to suck in the moment.
In that analogy, Pete Crow Armstrong is bootstrapping his own business by developing his power. He could easily take a more steady 9-5 with ground balls to the left side of the field. But he’d rather make his own legacy and destiny with higher exit velocities and a bigger slugging percentage.
With that, you’re gonna get 11 total bases in games against the Dodgers and he’s going to singlehandedly win you ball games.
But you’re also going to get pissed off along the way because of the strikeouts and flyouts and JUST HIT THE BALL ON THE GROUND AND LEG IT OUT. That’s all part of the tradeoff that makes it such a beautiful game.
All of that to say – which player do you prefer?
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