I have maybe another 30 tweets in support of my point but I think you get the message by now: Pete Crow Armstrong hits for power.
I talked extensively about the transition Monday afternoon but a lot of it was largely speculative based on his swing decision, swing path and overall approach. You can refresh yourself here:
Importantly – he gave us a full bodied example in the Padres series of what I mean by these swing changes.
It’s not a guy who is locked in and simply playing well.
It’s an elite athlete that’s been working on driving the ball to the outfield and increasing his slug.
He’s actively trained and developed his swing to hit lefty-on-left homers vs. being a slap-happy punch-and-judy disruptor on the bases.
A better example would be Juan Pierre vs. a roided out Brady Anderson. One guy is trying to hit ground balls to right field whereas the other guy will sacrifice his long term health and well-being to get to 50 homers. And in that example, PCA is obviously Brady Anderson right now.
The good stuff is that this will lead to a higher WAR and more explosive moments. In the short term it’s simply more valuable as a player. In the long run you have a critical puzzle piece to deep October runs. Not just a table setter but somebody who can singlehandedly win you a ballgame with one swing of the bat.
I give Pete a lot of credit for seeing that version of himself in a game that’s constantly trying to define you by your weaknesses. Instead of trying to be a high OBP guy that’s taking a lot of pitches, he’s leaning into his natural athletic strengths which can be summarily explained as: give it a big fuckin rip kid.
To do that, you have to be so confident and mature about your place on the roster. He knows he’s good enough defensively and on the bases that he has the room to try and make these changes. So if there’s growing pains and strikeouts and huge slumps, you fall back on the stuff that got you to the big leagues in the first place. And then in the process, you try to improve over time and make your adjustments. That’s standard operating procedure when you’re a plus plus runner and defender.
Instead Pete hasn’t given us any sign of trouble in adopting a new approach. He was 17-34 in spring training and he’s stayed hot the first month of the season. There’s going to be a bad stretch at some point this year because it’s MLB and there’s bad stretches for everyone. But you can safely assume that he’s much further along in the evolution process than we would have ever expected at the start of this narrative last winter.
So as we take an off day to regroup and refocus, I want to highlight Pete’s development as a key factor to my overwhelming expectations for this club. Especially considering Jed Hoyer’s desire to see overperformance from industry projections. Obviously Carson Kelly is atop that list but PCA isn’t far behind and I think it only gets bigger as the season goes.
Which is why I am now predicting a 7+ bWAR season for Pete provided he plays 150+ games. If he gets that much time then I think the value accumulation is inevitable.
With that in mind – I don’t think we need to move him to the leadoff spot tomorrow or any kind of shakeup just because he’s playing well. I think you let it ride at least through the 1st half and let pieces more naturally fit into place. And then when it’s time for the spark to get everyone clicking down the stretch, you give Happ an off day and bat PCA 1st. Then you bring Happ back into the 5 spot and move people down, but you wait to make these moves because we’ve got some momentum.
Does that make sense?
I hope so because it’s clear as day to me.
In fact I haven’t felt this confident since Anthony Rizzo and I never thought I’d feel that way again.
Ever.
So thank you PCA for making these adjustments and please for the love of everything that is holy and sacred, please stay healthy. Our season’s counting on it.