Good thing the Cubs are off today because we’ve got a loaded week out of the gate starting the Monday Morning Cubs Show. We recorded today and decided to strip out some segments for an old fashioned, free flowing conversation between a couple of buddies that follow the team closely.
These are my notes on the show and hopefully they improve the listening experience:
- When’s the right time to buy a Kyle Tucker jersey? I say right now and you go full embroidered numbers. Get the nice jersey and then remember you can easily repurpose “TUCKER” to a “FUCK TR” or something similar should he sign somewhere else. In both cases you’ll have the best jersey right now and if Tom Ricketts fails to sign him. People will eat that shit up.
- I compared this year to last on the show and I do it out of love for the MMCS audience. I just want people on the same page that this could get ugly without much notice. Not because it’s trending that way but more just out of shock from last year that the wheels fell off so quickly. Specifically, we were 19-12 on May 1st with a lot of bizarre luck that suggested we should have been 15-16. It was a weird time because it could be worse, and then shortly after it got much worse.
- That’s similar to this year in that we could be playing much worse based on the schedule because it’s so good an competitive. There’s a universe where the Cubs are 8-16 without a closer and Kyle Tucker sucks and everyone’s just furious with the start of the season. The fact we’re 14-10 just means we’re 14-10 right now and has nothing to do with how May can turn out. So don’t just assume that things will improve because the competition’s worse. The most important thing is the Cubs continue to swing the bat against the fastball and we stay healthy. Then I’m not worried about the future.
- But don’t completely ignore it on the grounds that the schedule gets easier and we’ve played well to start the year. That could just make things worse on June 1st.
- I hate to bring up last year but it’s more about setting the right expectations around the ball club. Even though we look good to start, playoff odds are still only 60-something percent. And a bad week could have us below .500 before the month is over so just stay on high alert please
- At the same time, the difference between a good and bad baseball team is almost impossible to explain. It’s so painful to be noncompetitive and that makes me sick to my stomach.
- The biggest reason I think this Cubs team has the makings to be competitive in October is what we’ve seen against good pitching. Specifically, the Cubs have won games started against:
- Zac Gallen twice
- Corbin Burnes
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Roki Sasaki
- Tyler Glasnow
- Even Nick Pivetta
- I also love being 2-0 in starts by Colin Rea for Justin Steele. I had no idea he threw 7 pitches for strikes until researching this show today. That’s about 3-4 more than you need from an average MLB starting pitcher.
- Ryan Pressly has a filthy breaking ball and now that he’s commanding it, everyone should calm down about his effectiveness. As long as he can spin it real sharp then we’re going to be fine with him in the 9th inning. It’s by far his best pitch and he throws it in any count.
- Carson Kelly is the best player of all time. Mahoney and I explain whether or not it’s sustainable.
- It’s obviously not sustainable.
- Shota should pitch well tomorrow against the Dodgers and I’ve got that circled as game of the year on paper so far.
- Saturday was the most important win of the season because we took advantage of the Dbacks and never let go. It was a great series win and I hope a huge learning lesson for the bullpen. They delivered almost 5 scoreless from the second tier group and that’s exactly how you build momentum into the warmer months. Everyone feels like they’re contributing and that translates to results = nothing better than pitching with a purpose for the guys around you and I really think we’re getting that culture.
- Lastly – it’s obvious Jed Hoyer will be making moves around the trade deadline. I think it’s a fluid situation but right now I would prioritize a 3rd baseman over most pitching except for a #1 like Alcantara. That’s the level pitching needs to be at to supersede improvements at 3rd. It has to be someone that can pitch the 1st or 2nd game of a playoff series next to Shota. If it’s not that quality of pitching, then we need a 3rd baseman that can hit 4th or 5th and move everyone else down one spot in the order. Those are my two big needs and I say all of this knowing Jed will be improving the bullpen as well. If we hit on 2 of these 3 areas competently then you should have enough to win an NLDS and that’s the honest truth.
These are my show notes.
Check out the MMCS if you haven’t already and of course please go follow Mahoney on Twitter for 7 years of good luck