I’m pool side in Miami right now enjoying the sunshine and a book about the San Francisco drug scene in the 1960s. It’s almost perfect with the small problem that Dansby Swanson is fuckin killing me right now.
I’ll defend him until death. Through Mendoza line fluctuations and unreported knee injuries. In sickness and in sound fundamental play. I’m not going anywhere when it comes to loving Dansby Swanson on my baseball team. And as I explain in this week’s show, it actually teeters on the side of emotional. He moves me that much in his preparation, dedication, team-spirt and commitment to excellence.
You could easily argue there’s no one in baseball like him and you could simply restrict that argument to the intangibles. I’ll take that smoke if you want it. I don’t think anyone else is oiling his teammates gloves before road trips. I don’t know another infielder that moves his teammates around the field to adjust for hitter tendencies. And it’s certainly been a minute since Cal Ripken called pitches for Ben MacDonald.
But these are weak arguments when you’re hitting .120 with runners in scoring position with a 50% K rate and a 23 wRC+.
Nobody cares about how good of a teammate you are when you sink the lineup on a nightly basis.
If we had any sense of competence last night in the 5th spot, there’s a strong chance we don’t see extra innings because we scored more than 1 lousy run.
All of this is valid and that’s why I find it so hard to explain my conviction in Dansby. Truthfully he looks like butt cheeks in the batters box.
I think that’s because he’s an overthinker which helps defensively and kills offensively.
Comparatively, consider Starlin Castro’s scouting report. I don’t think there’s a greater representation of opposite ends between the two. Starlin’s out to lunch in the field where Dansby is tracking every seem of every pitch.
It kills offensively because you need to react. And to do that, you need to turn your brain off and let it rip in the box.
But what if you’ve made swing changes?
What if you get paid a lot of money?
What if you think a lot because thinking helps you get an advantage?
What if you’re slumping and feeling pressure to correct swing changes because you get paid a lot of money and you’re convinced there’s a better way to play?
I’m getting tired just considering these hypotheticals and I’m not Dansby Swanson.
My point is that there’s so many moving parts to his game that you’re forced to take good with bad.
Good: he’s in a perfect position in the field at the most important position on the field. He’s gone the entire season without an error. He knows everything about every pitcher he’s ever faced. And in a way, he’s the closest thing to a player manager since Pete Rose. And again – if you want to argue any of this stuff then please come find me because I want all this smoke.
Bad: he sucks at hitting and it’s killing the momentum when he hits 5th.
So change him right?
The big problem there is you’d be moving other guys around that have been successful in their batting order spot. So because Dansby is down now we have to move Happ and PCA? That seems so bold when it’s not even May.
Another bold/stupid idea would be to take him out of the lineup completely. Even as the absolute worst bat in the order, he’s still a 0.0 bWAR player because of the defense.
Reminds me of my favorite manager of all time. Earl Weaver started Mark Belanger at shortstop for the Orioles for 15 seasons with a career OPS+ of 68. When asked if he considered an alternative because of Belangers shitty bat, Weaver famously said I don’t care if that motherfucker never gets a fucking hit again in his bullshit fucking career… there’s no better shortstop in the world or more important player on this motherfucking team so stop asking me you stupid cocksucker .
Something like that.
And while extreme – the broader point is that the shortstop is so important that you’re willing to give up any offensive value if it means they’re outstanding in the field.
I don’t agree 100% but it’s a good perspective from a hall of fame manager about the sacrifices you’re willing to make for a good team.
In Belanger’s case, he wasn’t getting $175,000,000 or hitting 5th. He was dead last in the order and made $60,000 a year.
So obviously those circumstances are much different with Dansby which brings me all the way back to the beginning.
We don’t have any alternatives at shortstop. Nico can play there if there’s an injury. But the idea of moving guys around because Dansby forgot how to hit is an insane idea.
Here’s the reality: you’re going to watch Dansby play every day this year whether he gets another hit or not. That’s not changing without injury.
Instead – they might move him down the order but I’m afraid it won’t be for a long time unless Dansby himself asks to get moved down. That’s the only way it changes now. He has to tell Counsell himself that Amaya, etc. deserves to hit 5th and even that’s a stretch.
So here’s where it leaves us – patiently waiting for Dansby to get hot and no recourse to move him around. Especially considering Counsell’s recent comments that he personally doesn’t think the batting order matters in any comparison to the players that make up the batting order.
Does that make sense?
Because it does to me and that’s a huge reason why I think Dansby struggles his way back into form in the 5th spot. I could obviously be very wrong, but when I take everything together, I get this:
- He has to play every day
- We don’t have any alternatives
- He’s the #1 defensive shortstop in MLB
- The lineup 1-4 and 6-9 has been wayyyyy too good to move around
- Dansby thinks too much in the box
- He can’t figure it out in AAA for so many good reasons that I would just ask no one to even suggest that again because it’s so stupid
- Counsell doesn’t want to move him
- It would be stupid to move Happ when he’s been outstanding seeing pitches
- It would be stupid to move PCA when he’s on fire and still developing
- Tucker/Seiya/Busch are the 2-3-4 combination
- Nico has NO POWER to hit 5th if you value that stuff
- The catchers are red hot in the 8th spot and already have to handle the pitching staff. I think it’s a huge overreach to plug them 5th
And finally all of this could be an overreach on my part. Who knows. The big risk I’m inviting is that players don’t like change and I stand by that. I don’t think it makes sense but that’s just my perspective.
Most importantly – Dansby isn’t going anywhere. We’re gonna struggle until he gets hot, which is absolutely in line with his history in MLB. He goes away only to come back for a couple weeks of red hot hitting. Then it goes away. Then it comes back. But overall, the bigger the moment the better he plays. That’s why I’m inclined to give him a pass for April because this season will only grow with importance over time. And I think when that evolution takes place, you’ll see Dansby Swanson rise to the occasion because that’s what Dansby Swanson does best.
Go Cubs.