We’re wrapping up MLB predictions week and it’s worth pointing out that the Chicago White Sox have done what many thought was intentionally impossible at this point in the calendar. It appears they’ve been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention before pitchers & catchers even have a chance to report:
Alexa
It’s mean to pile on but this is a real holy shit moment, largely for reasons discussed extensively in our Fangrapghs Cubs blog just an hour ago: they’re heavily skewed towards mediocrity on both ends of the spectrum. It’s a huge part of the Fangraphs recipe to assume players are usually moving towards the mean. In that sense, it actually resembles the same way MLB players think about themselves – they’re always waiting for hot/cold streaks to end in either direction. Almost all of them are resigned to the grind but I digress.
The reason this is significant is because even under such conservative principles, the White Sox have still failed to register one of the billion scenarios in the multiverse where they make the playoffs. IT simply does not exist and that’s insane for professional sports.
We’re not talking about Chicago State making a final four run this March.
It’s actually one of the oldest Major League Baseball teams owned by one of the most powerful guys in the history of the sport. And after 2.5 full seasons of tanking, a new front office, new coaching staff and probably a brand new sales/marketing department, the best they can do for Sox fans is 0.0% in February.
And at least the Rockies have a legitimate excuse for the other 0.0% on the board. They’re sharing division standing space with the Dodgers, Giants, Padres and Diamondbacks. There’s at least a dozen teams across the league that would be a lock to finish last place in that division so I’m not inclined to hold this against the Rockies. At least not as much as the White Sox.
Depressing, yes. But there is good news.
According to the experts, the White Sox would be able to increase their playoff odds from 0.0% to 0.1% if they sign Alex Bregman. See for yourself:
Worth noting the forecasted playoff increase here (0 to 0.1%) came in dead last in the projections.
Next closest was… you guessed it! …. The Colorado Rockies at 1.8%.
Ergo – even in the basement cellar of professional baseball, the 2025 Chicago White Sox find a way to stand alone. Truly amazing.
Next week I’ll circle back with some extended thoughts about just how hard it is to be this bad. One thing I can’t stop thinking about is whether it’s harder to be good like the Dodgers or bad like the White Sox. Consider all these guys have to make it through the minor leagues and all of them are playing for a contract. While it’s obviously extremely difficult to build a club like the Dodgers, I also think it’s hard to suck the way the Sox do. There’s just too much talent and skill to go around the professional game right now to be a 0.0% club without going full Major League. And even those guys found a way to October so who really knows?
I’ll sleep on it and report back. Until then let me know if you guys want to go sit in section 108 with Beef Loaf this summer. I think that would be a good time with or without the playoff odds.