Lineup Preview today is actually in blog format so I can properly cover my thoughts because it’s necessary. There’s so much complaining and confusion that we need to sort it out together in the written word.
First things first though – Shota is back on the mound and you couldn’t ask for better timing. The Cardinals are much worse against lefties while we get added emotional benefit of finally having our ace back. It’s been such a grind and I think the boys respond together with some contagious momentum. Like when you’re buddy moves out of state for work and then you hang out and a wedding and the vibes are through the roof and you party extra hard together. It’s not too much different to say the Cubs are jacked up to see their boy back in uniform.
Or something like that.
Lineup Reprinted:
- Ian Happ
- Kyle Tucker
- Seiya Suzuki
- Pete Crow Armstrong
- Dansby Swanson
- Michael Busch
- Carson Kelly
- Nico Hoerner
- Matt Shaw
Observations:
- It’s the end of June and I want everyone here to agree that we like 1-4 a lot and there’s almost no reason to change it
- But if we did change it… and considering the drama at #5 with Dansby and specifically RISP…. I would now accept a Nico Hoerner move to leadoff with Ian Happ going to 5th and Dansby to 8th. That’s the only change I would be willing to make and quite frankly I don’t love it and this is where I need you guys to trust me as I’ll explain next.
- Nico is successful primarily because he hits the ball hard up the middle. In tense situations, he most often has an advantage in his approach because it’s predicated on jumping on pitches. He doesn’t take just to take. He has a big zone that covers the entire plate horizontally, and if it’s there, he rips. That’s why he has and probably always will see 15-20% less pitches than MLB average.
- Further consider Nico swings at the first pitch about 20% less than league average which reinforces the 2nd or 3rd pitch of every game to be put in play and that’s probably not what you want in front of Kyle Tucker to start the 1st inning. And I say that more as a matter of fact because it’s obvious MLB values multiple pitches in the leadoff spot.
- But there’s tradeoffs and so the tradeoff would be moving Happ into more of a run producing role in place of a struggling Dansby Swanson with RISP.
- These are your own personal tradeoffs and with the 1-9 on paper, I think it’s probably a wash and possibly a downgrade if we’re going Dansby 8th, Shaw 9th and Hoerner 1st. Turning the order over becomes a little easier and that’s a bad thing.
- The easiest solution is Dansby Swanson gets it figured out because there’s nowhere else for him to go.
Some other observations:
- Ian Happ is red hot and I very much enjoy watching him play
- We’re at the point in the year that if you’re talking about extending Kyle Tucker, you’re moron. The only thing we need to be talking about is upgrading the roster and that conversation needs to pick up steam immediately.
- Every day I say a prayer for Seiya Suzuki’s personal health because he’s so utterly important to this lineup’s success
- Pete Crow-Armstrong finally has a chip on his shoulder for being a moron the other day and I love it. I was worried he was too cocky after proving haters wrong to start the year. He’s a guy who needs more heat because I think it makes him immeasurably better. So while I hate the mistakes, I love the way he responds and I hope we get a nice run out of this.
- Dansby needs to empty his brain when he gets in the batters box. There’s so much thinking that he makes Matt Shaw look stoic. I need a calm presence and I actually think the guilt trip stuff in the media will work in the long-run. Otherwise it’s going to force me into a somewhat controversial take that we need to trade for a right handed hitting 3rd baseman with power. And I don’t want to do that because it’s Matt Shaw’s position for another decade and this is where things get complicated.
- Michael Busch can’t hit lefties. If we’re making trades, then someone who can play first and mash left handed pitching seems like an obvious upgrade. But I don’t make those decisions. I’m just saying it would be a slam dunk for Jed to get a righty corner infielder with power against LHP.
- I read a rumor or study or something that said the worst hitter in your lineup should hit 7th and I think that’s fairly Carson Kelly.
- Nico Hoerner is good where he’s at which thus makes me uncomfortable to move him around.
- Matt Shaw needs a map and a chaperone. My goodness. It’s categorically stunning how much his approach changes pitch to pitch. The other day it looked like he was throwing out the trash onto New York sidewalk but instead he was swinging at a 2-2 slider. Never seen anything like it. And then the emotion and sadness on his face reminds me of Albert Almora bouncing out to the 2nd baseman 3 times a night. He’s going to be a phenomenal player and it could even happen this year. But right now I almost feel bad for Matt Shaw and can’t help but cheer for him harder than most players because I know it’s eating him up. Thankfully he can still hit 9th in this lineup but Dansby Swanson may force Jed to do some unfortunate things to Shaw’s playing time because there’s really only room for one lost non-catcher.
Does any of that make sense?
Because we need a win today and we need it bad.
Go Cubs.