READER EMAIL: This Is The Official 2025 Masters Preview Betting Guide

Carls Note: a guy named Clayborne Taylor (@ClayborneTayl0r) reached out with a Masters preview that he wanted to post on CarlsBlogs.com. It’s long and detailed and good stuff so we’re publishing this man’s work. If you guys like it maybe we can get more detailed Golf content. I like nerdy sports writing more than I like cool guy content and this fits into the nerdy sports writing category. So check it out and let me know what you think.

The Official 2025 Masters Preview

The most magical event in sports is ALMOST underway…. Grab your best Augusta green polo, possibly an adult beverage (or five) and kick back and let the magic unravel… The 89th Masters tournament will begin this Thursday at 7:30 AM EST, kicked off by Augusta legends Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player and Tom Watson as they reprise their roles as the honorary starters. The honorary starters and Green Jacket Ceremonies will be streamed on The Masters app, ESPN, ESPN + and Paramount + as well. Sunday will be broadcasted live on CBS. The 2024 champion, Scottie Scheffler opens as the betting favorite at +450 (FanDuel). Scottie is looking to build on his past success at Augusta as he will try to defend his title to add a third green jacket to his prestigious closet. Scottie fired off a sizzling -4 round to finish the tournament at -11 to secure his second Masters victory over first timer Ludvig Aberg in 2024. His second Augusta win in his last 4 appearances…

His 2024 victory started as a four main race on Sunday between other stars such as Collin Morikawa, Max Homa (Yes, hard to believe as of late) and Tommy Fleetwood. Scottie eventually separated himself from the field with an impressive 4 under final round to win sweat free by 4 strokes. Scottie in the final round carded 7 birdies on his way to victory. If it weren’t for a nervy approach shot on 18, Scottie wins by a staggering 5 strokes over the best players in the entire world. All eyes are on the two time Champion to repeat this week in Augusta, while others are just hoping to keep up with him to have a shot at contenting come Sunday.

On the other hand of the star studded field we have Northern Irishman, Rory Mcilroy who is the second betting favorite coming in at +650. It may be hard to believe but Rory is still attempting to complete his career grand slam by hoisting the green jacket this Sunday. This is the only major that has eluded Rory over his storied career. This will be his 17th start at Augusta and has looked great so far this year as he won the coveted Players Championship beating J.J. Spaun in a Monday playoff. He also carded another win in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM. Rory has been close many times in Augusta but has not been able to climb the mountain. Yet… Rory is looking for his first major title in a decade since his 2014 PGA Championship. In recent weeks he has hinted to the media that he is facing some elbow soreness leading up to the event but has also been seen practicing at Augusta National several times in 2025. Possible mind games from Rory or is there an actual headline there? We will find out come Thursday just how healthy he really is.

“Keys To Victory” -Here are the four factors I deem most important when modeling The Masters:

1. Approach Play: Hitting a high percentage of greens in regulation is paramount for this event and course layout. Historically speaking, past champions have averaged a GIR of 68%, highlighting the importance of precise iron play to set up makeable birdie putts.
2. Par 5 Scoring: Augusta’s 4 Par 5’s will be the ultimate test for many competitors in the field.Over the past five decades, 49 out of 50 champions have finished these holes under Par. Averaging an 8 under on these holes on their way to victory.
3. Putting Performance: Augusta’s undulating and lightning fast greens will demand exceptional putting performances. Past champions have averaged 114 puts over the 4 rounds.
4. Course Performance History: Familiarity with the layout of the course will be a major factor when handicapping The Masters. The unique layout and tedious greens will benefit the veterans who have played the course many times compared to those with little experience at Augusta National.

No player outside of Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth have had consecutive top tens in The Masters. This trend has been a perfect 4-4 in the last four years.

2024 Masters: Noone in the Top 9 from 2023 finished better than ninth with an average finish of 42nd.

2023 Masters: Nobody in the Top 12 in 2022 finished better than 10th with an average finish of 39th.

2022 Masters: Nobody in the Top 6 in 2021 finished better than 6th with an average finish of 43rd.

2021 Masters: Nobody in the Top 6 in 2020 finished better than 10th with an average finish of 54th.

With that being said, let’s dive into the 2025 Masters Betting Card:

Jon Rahm +1400:

Jon Rahm has already established himself as a powerhouse in Major Championships, and his odds reflect that as he comes in as the third favorite coming into Augusta. Rahm won The Masters in 2023, showcasing his ability to handle Augusta’s demanding layout winning by four strokes over Brooks Koepka. This will be Rahm’s 9th Masters start. He has 5 Top Ten finishes and has NEVER missed the cut at Augusta National. His game is well-suited for the course: he’s a long hitter (averaging over 300 yards off the tee), which helps on Augusta’s lengthy par-5s like the 13th and 15th, where players can go for the green in two. Rahm also has an elite short game, crucial for navigating Augusta’s slick greens and tricky pin placements. His iron play is consistently sharp, allowing him to attack pins and create birdie opportunities. Additionally, Rahm’s mental toughness in high-pressure situations where he’s won multiple majors, including the 2021 U.S. Open. Making him a strong candidate to handle the Sunday pressure at Augusta. Great course history as a former champion with consistent finishes at Augusta National. Rahm is long off the Tee while also being deadly accurate when he’s on. Precise irons and close approach shots from Rahm is something you can count on at Augusta. 

Collin Morikawa +1800:

Collin Morikawa is one of the most dangerous ball strikers in the world and his game aligns well with Augusta National. He has improved each year at Augusta, last year finishing in third place, appearing to be quite familiar and comfortable with the demanding course layout. This will be his sixth start at The Masters and like Rahm, has NEVER missed the cut. He has finished in the top ten in his last three starts at Augusta National. This uphill trajectory and his elite iron play makes him a contender to watchout for. If he can pull off a strong putting performance, he should have a great shot at contending come Sunday afternoon. Collin Morikawa’s game is tailor-made for Augusta National. Morikawa excels at hitting fairways and relies on his superb iron play—two critical skills at The Masters. Augusta rewards players who can position themselves well off the tee and attack pins with precision, and Morikawa’s ball-striking is among the best in the world. He’s a two-time major champion (2020 PGA Championship, 2021 Open Championship), showing he can close out big events. Morikawa has also had solid Masters performances, finishing T5 in 2021 and T10 in 2023. His decision to stick to his natural cut shot rather than forcing a draw could help him play more comfortably and avoid the mistakes he made in previous years. 

Bryson DeChambeau +2000:

From PGA Villain to Youtube Golf Goodguy, Bryson DeChambeau claimed his second U.S. Open title last year after a crucial missed putt by Rory Mcilroy down the stretch… Bryson is hit or miss for many golf fans but his U.S. Open win over Rory Mcilroy seemed to be a turning point for him in the public eye. Bryson played Augusta as an amateur and will be making his 9th Masters start this Thursday. Last year he was as consistent as anyone in the majors outside of the likes of Xander. Bryson finished 6th last year and his shot shaping and distance from the tee should set up well for him. Bryson DeChambeau’s unique approach to golf could give him an edge at Augusta. DeChambeau averages a staggering 322.4 yards off the tee, making him one of the longest hitters in the field. Augusta’s par-5s are scoring opportunities, and DeChambeau’s distance allows him to reach these greens in two, setting up eagle chances. His scientific approach to the game—analyzing angles, green speeds, and course strategy—could help him navigate Augusta’s complexities. DeChambeau won the 2020 & 2024 U.S. Open with a dominant display of power and precision, and if he can dial in his iron play and putting, he could overpower the course. His confidence and willingness to take risks (like aggressive lines on holes like the 13th) could pay off. Bryson has underestimated this course in the past and I think he finally realizes now how hard it truly is to earn that Green Jacket.

Xander Schauffle +2000:

Xander Schauffle is coming off the best season of his career and one of the best major runs in general as he won both the PGA & Open Championship, seemingly turning the corner in his career as a multiple major champion. Xander is making his eighth Masters start and has 4 Top Ten finishes in four of his last six starts. Could not pass up this number even though he has recently come back from a rib injury that sidelined him at the start of the season. A wildcard for sure but a number just too good to pass up on a guy who is coming off a stellar season with great past finishes at Augusta as well including a T2 in 2019, a T3 in 2021 and a T10 in 2023.

Brooks Koepka +3300:

Brooks is a specialist when it comes to Major Championships and he is very open about this and his desire to win the big ones. Brooks is making his 10th Masters start and has had a strong showing at Augusta National with three top 7 finishes in his last six Augusta starts. Koepka has 5 major titles under his belt. PGA CHAMP: 2018,2019,2023 & U.S. Open wins in 2017 and 2018. Brooks dealt with injuries after these pivotal wins and because of that, left for the LIV opportunity when it presented himself. Brooks has looked healthy the last two seasons and is slowly reapproaching his old form. His mental toughness will be key when it comes to how he finishes this week. Long drives and strong ball striking will need to be present for him to hoist the trophy as his putting can be streaky at times.

Shane Lowry +4500:

Shane Lowry’s gritty, all-around game could lead him to a Masters victory. Lowry won the 2019 Open Championship in dominant fashion, proving he can handle major pressure. His Masters record includes a T3 in 2022, showing he can contend at Augusta. Lowry is a strong ball-striker, particularly with his irons, which is critical at Augusta. He’s also one of the best in the world at chipping and scrambling, a necessity on a course where players often miss greens and need to get up-and-down to save par. Lowry’s experience playing in windy conditions (from his Open Championship win) could help if Augusta plays firm and fast, as it often does in April. His jovial personality keeps him loose, which is an asset in the high-stakes environment of The Masters. 

Robert McIntyre +6000:

Robert MacIntyre is a dark horse, but he has the tools to win at Augusta. The Scottish left-hander won his first PGA Tour event at the 2024 RBC Canadian Open, showing he can close out tournaments. This is only his third start at the Masters so he does not have the same experience as our other selections but MacIntyre’s game is well-rounded: he’s a good driver of the ball, has solid iron play, and is a strong putter. His creativity, honed on links courses in Scotland, could help him navigate Augusta’s unique challenges, like the sloping fairways and undulating greens. Certainly a longshot but his form as of late is indisputable, notching five Top 15 Finishes worldwide in 2025.

Corey Conners +75000:

Corey Conners is a long shot, but his elite ball-striking makes him a sneaky pick at Augusta. Conners is one of the best iron players on the PGA Tour, regularly leading in greens-in-regulation stats. Corey is making his 8th appearance at Augusta, hitting greens is crucial, as it allows players to avoid the difficult chip shots and focus on putting for birdie. Conners has a consistent Masters record, with finishes of T8 in 2020 and T10 in 2019. He’s also a two-time winner of the Valero Texas Open (2019, 2023), which is often a good indicator of Masters success due to its timing the week before and its demand for precision. If Conners can get hot with his putter—a weaker part of his game—he could ride his ball-striking to a surprise victory. 

OLD MAN LOTTO LONG SHOTS:

Billy Horshel +17000

Phil Mickelson +10000

Justin Rose +110000

Sergio Garcia +11000

Good luck to all those reading. You can follow me on X @ClayborneTayl0r for golf betting picks. Last year we had 8 Outright Victories, 3 first round leaders and this year we have 1 win so far thanks to last week’s winner, Brian Harman (+7000). Since 2018, 8 Major Championship Outright Winners including Xander Schauffle’s 2024 Open Championship (+1400).