I don’t want to make a huge deal out of this but same time we need to collectively address the fact that Tito Francona is managing the Cincinnati Reds this year and I almost completely forgot about it.
The reason this is important is because Tito is one of the best managers of all time and that’s not good for the Cubs generally.
I should stop now and say I think the Cubs are a much better roster with more depth, better pitching and an objectively higher probability of winning the division.
But Tito is still Tito and that means the Reds will be competitive deep into the regular season.
And at 9-8 already, there’s a ton of room for that club to get better. Specifically, they’re bottom 5 in MLB in nearly every offensive category and they look like shit:
- CES has a .462 OPS
- Spencer Steer is at .397
- Jeimer’s at .419
- Jake Fraley .500
- And even Elly De La Cruz is at a meager .681 OPS
That’s obviously not going to stay the same for the rest of the season and all 5 of those bats are going to improve. That’s not even a debate. The Reds are absolutely putrid right now with a ton of room to improve.
And while all this goes on, Hunter Greene could be better than Paul Skenes at the end of the year. He certainly looks up to the task as he leads MLB in WAR for pitchers right now. But it’s also in his command, presence and overall confidence to mix his arsenal. It reminds me of Zack Greinke a lot in the combination of balance and filth. He’s got a compact and repeatable delivery to maximize consistency, but there’s no compromise in stuff. It’s all incredibly electric wipe out plus plus nastiness.
Over his last 13 starts, Hunter Greene has thrown 80.2 innings and 75 of them have been scoreless.
I don’t have a frame of reference for that statistic but I think on its face we can all agree it’s incredible.
Behind him, you’ve got Brady Singer and Nick Lodollo and Andrew Abbot. If one of those 3 steps up for a career year then that’s a huge problem. And injuries aside, there’s a real probability this ends up happening because Hunter Greene is setting the pace. That usually happens when someone steps up in a pitching staff – the rest of the guys fill in around him. It’s contagious.
And behind the starters, they’ve got a handful of relievers that’s experienced and nasty
- Graham Ashcraft (who just converted to bullpen this year)
- Tony Santillan strikes out 14 per 9
- Emilio Pagan has filthy command as a closer
- Brent Suter is 35 and good for a 140 ERA+
- Taylor Rogers, also 35, is a better version of Brent Suter
That’s kind of a problem and then you consider they’re under Tito’s control and the whole thing feels a lot worse.
So just keep this in the back of your mind while the Cubs close out the month and roll into May. Things are good now and we’re very confident, but I don’t want to overlook what’s brewing in Cincinnati because I can’t afford to be blindsided by a late season surge from Tito Francona.
Good chance that ends up coming.