Editors Note from Carl – This guy slayed the Masters preview and I think it’s only fair to run it back. Bet only the money you can afford to lose. Follow him here @ClayborneTayl0r
PGA Championship Preview 2025
The coveted PGA Championship will tee off this Thursday at 8:22 EST. This year’s tournament will be played at the legendary Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. Although many golf fans aren’t thrilled with this selection, the course has provided great moments in the sport’s history, and I expect nothing less for this event. Quail Hollow is also a regular stop on the PGA Tour, hosting the Wells Fargo Championship and having previously hosted the Presidents Cup in 2022.
Quail Hollow is a Par 71, measuring just over 7,500 yards. It features Champion Ultradwarf Bermuda grass and was originally designed by George Cobb in 1961. The course has since undergone multiple redesigns by Tom Fazio, most recently in 2016.
Key Course Features
“Green Mile” – Holes 16–18: Among the toughest finishing stretches on tour. The 16th is a long, slight dogleg left with water on the left side. The 17th is an iconic par-3 with an intimidating water carry. The 18th is a monstrous par-4 with a tight landing zone and a demanding approach.
“Long Bombs Away”: Distance off the tee will be a key factor in this year’s PGA Championship, but accuracy will ultimately determine who lifts the trophy.
Firm & Fast Greens: These Bermuda greens typically play very firm and fast. This benefits players from the Southeast or those who played college golf in similar conditions. However, if the weather turns sloppy, green speed may not be as influential as in years past.
Key Metrics for Success at Quail Hollow
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT): Driving distance and accuracy are at a premium due to the course’s length and punishing rough.
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP): Long iron play is vital, especially on par-4s in the 450–500 yard range.
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: PUTT) on Bermuda: Proficiency on fast Bermuda greens can separate the contenders.
- Par-4 Scoring (450–500 yards): Many holes fall within this range—strong play here is a difference-maker.
- Bogey Avoidance: With scoring opportunities limited, minimizing mistakes is often more important than chasing birdies.
PGA Championship Outright Selections (Odds Subject To Change):
Bryson DeChambeau (+700)
Best Finish at Quail Hollow:
- 4th place – 2018 Wells Fargo Championship
- Also: T9 – 2021 Wells Fargo
Recent Form:
- Winner – LIV Golf Korea (Rounds of 65-66-66, -19)
- T5 – 2025 Masters
- Playing some of his best golf since his U.S. Open victory.
Strokes Gained Profile (last 36 rounds on similar courses):
- SG: Off-the-Tee: +1.15 (elite driver, top 3 TOUR-wide)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda): +0.55 (top 20%)
- SG: Total (Quail Hollow – last 12 rounds): 1st in SG: Putting
(Source: Action Network, DataGolf)
Course Fit:
- Quail Hollow demands power and aggressive tee play, ideal for Bryson.
- His distance allows him to shorten holes others play long.
- Shown he can putt exceptionally well on fast Bermuda.
- LIV Golf Korea with rounds of 65, 66, and 66, finishing 19-under-par. This win follows consistent top-10 finishes in recent majors, including a tie for fifth at The Masters.
- Strokes Gained at Quail Hollow: Over his last 12 rounds at Quail Hollow, DeChambeau ranks first in strokes gained putting, highlighting his proficiency on the course’s Bermuda greens.
- Betting Odds: +700 (approximately 10.5% implied win probability)
Xander Schauffele +2200
Best Finish at Quail Hollow:
- 2nd place – 2024 Wells Fargo Championship
- 2nd place – 2023 Wells Fargo Championship
(Back-to-back runner-ups, beaten by Rory and Wyndham Clark)
Recent Form:
- 2024 PGA Champion
- T6 – 2025 Masters
Strokes Gained Profile (last 36 rounds):
- SG: Tee-to-Green: +1.85 (top 5 TOUR-wide)
- SG: Approach: +0.85 (top 10%)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda): +0.18 (solid but not elite)
Course Fit:
- Elite iron player and clutch under pressure.
- Mentally comfortable at Quail—knows how to play the Green Mile.
- Recent Form: Schauffele, the defending PGA Champion, has been under the radar but remains a strong competitor. He was runner-up in his past two starts at Quail Hollow, losing to Wyndham Clark in 2023 and Rory McIlroy last season.
- Course History: His consistent high finishes at Quail Hollow indicate a strong affinity for the course.
- Betting Odds: +2200 (approximately 7.7% implied win probability)
Shane Lowry +5500
Recent Form:
- Runner-up – 2025 Truist Championship
- 4 top-10s, 8 top-25s in 11 starts this season
- Now World No. 10 (career-best ranking)
Strokes Gained Profile (2025 YTD):
- SG: Tee-to-Green: +1.45 (Top 15)
- SG: Approach: +0.90 (Top 10)
- SG: Putting: -0.05 (inconsistent, especially on Bermuda)
Course Fit:
- Ball-striking suits Quail’s long approaches and demanding par-4s.
- Struggles a bit on Bermuda greens, but thrives in tough scoring setups. Best Finish at Quail Hollow: Tied for 13th (2023 Wells Fargo Championship)
- Recent Form: Lowry has achieved a career-high rank of 10th in the Official World Golf Ranking following his runner-up finish at the Truist Championship. He has shown remarkable form with four top-10 finishes and eight top-25 finishes in 11 tournaments this season.
- Strokes Gained: Lowry ranks 11th in SG: Approach and 4th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season, showcasing his ball-striking prowess.
- Betting Odds: +5500 (approximately 2.2% implied win probability)
Hideki Matsuyama +4500
Best Finish at Quail Hollow:
- T5 – 2017 PGA Championship
Recent Form:
- Win – 2025 Sentry Tournament of Champions
- SG at Sentry: +17.97 total
- SG: Approach: +9.15, SG: Putting: +5.41
- T33 – 2025 Truist Championship
Strokes Gained Profile (2025 YTD):
- SG: Tee-to-Green: +1.60 (elite)
- SG: Approach: +1.00 (elite)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda): Slightly negative historically
Course Fit:
- Excellent iron play, thrives in difficult conditions.
- Not a great putter, but has putted well here before.
- Recent Form: Matsuyama started the year strong with a win at The Sentry, leading the field with a total SG of 17.978, including 9.158 in SG: Approach and 5.417 in SG: Putting.
- Course History: Matsuyama has a solid track record at Quail Hollow, making the cut in all his appearances, including the 2017 PGA Championship, where he was in contention before finishing tied for 5th.
- Betting Odds: +4500 (approximately 2.8% implied win probability)
Justin Thomas +2200
Best Finish at Quail Hollow:
- 1st – 2017 PGA Championship
Recent Form:
- 6 top-10 finishes in 2025
- Winner – 2025 RBC Heritage (ending win drought)
- T17 – 2025 Masters
Strokes Gained Profile (last 36 rounds):
- SG: Approach: +0.98 (elite)
- SG: Around the Green: +0.42 (underrated)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda): -0.10 (still volatile)
Course Fit:
- Has comfort and confidence on this course.
- Can hit every shot needed—driver, stinger, long irons
- Recent Form: Thomas is showing strong form heading into the 2025 PGA Championship, with six top-10 finishes and his first victory in nearly three years.
- Course History: Thomas secured his first major victory at Quail Hollow during the 2017 PGA Championship, finishing two strokes ahead of the field.
- Betting Odds: +2200 (approximately 4.8% implied win probability)
Collin Morikawa +2500
- Recent Form: Morikawa has displayed solid performance this season, including a second-place finish at The Sentry and a tie for 10th at THE PLAYERS Championship.
- Course Fit: Quail Hollow’s demand for precise iron play aligns with Morikawa’s strengths.
- Betting Odds: +2500 (approximately 4.3% implied win probability)
LONGSHOTS:
Robert Mcintyre +11000
Dustin Johnson +12000
Akshay Bhatia +15000
Cameron Young +22000
Good luck to everyone reading and enjoy the 2nd Major Championship of the season!