CARLS NOTE – THIS IS FROM @ClayborneTayl0r AND IS ANOTHER EDITION IN HIS MAJOR CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING PREVIEWS. BET AT YOUR OWN RISK AND DON’T DO ANYTHING STUPID.
The 125th U.S. Open will tee off this Thursday on June 12th at the prestigious Oakmont Country Club. Last year’s winner Bryson DeChambeau will open as the second biggest favorite (+750) in the event, trailing only Scottie Scheffler (+275). This year’s demanding venue will be an extreme test of driving accuracy, precision around the greens and scrambling consistency.
PAR AND YARDAGE: Oakmont Country Club will be set up at 7,372 yards and will play to a par of 35-35–70. The yardage for each round of the championship will vary due to course setup and conditions.
ARCHITECTS Designed by Henry Fownes, Oakmont Country Club opened in 1903. Fownes spent a year building the course on former farmland adjacent to the Allegheny River Valley. The Pennsylvania Turnpike, which was constructed in the late 1940s, passes through part of the course. Oakmont was the nation’s first golf course to be recognized as a National Historic Landmark.
CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY: This is the 125th U.S. Open Championship. The U.S. Open, which was first played in 1895, was not contested for two years (1917-1918) during World War I and for four years (1942-1945) during World War II. The youngest winner of the U.S. Open is 19-year-old John McDermott, who won in 1911; he is among nine players age 21 or younger who have won the U.S. Open. The oldest winner is Hale Irwin, who was 45 and playing on a special exemption when he won his third U.S. Open title in 1990. Irwin also won in 1974 and 1979. There are four four-time U.S. Open winners: Willie Anderson (1901, 1903, 1904, 1905), amateur Bob Jones (1923, 1926, 1929, 1930), Ben Hogan (1948, 1950, 1951, 1953), and Jack Nicklaus (1962, 1967, 1972, 1980). Only six players have won the Masters and U.S. Open titles in the same year: Craig Wood (1941), Ben Hogan (1951, 1953), Arnold Palmer (1960), Jack Nicklaus (1972), Tiger Woods (2002) and Jordan Spieth (2015). PURSE The 2024 purse was $21.5 million, the highest among golf’s major championships; the winner earned $4.3 million. The 2025 purse will be announced at a later date. OAKMONT COUNTRY CLUB NOTES • The 125th U.S. Open will be the 10th U.S. Open conducted at Oakmont Country Club (1927, 1935, 1953, 1962, 1973, 1983, 1994, 2007, 2016, 2025), the most of any host club • Oakmont will host its 18th USGA championship and first since the 2021 U.S. Amateur • The 2025 U.S. Open will be the 95th USGA championship held in Pennsylvania, the most of any state • It was announced in August 2021 that Oakmont would be a U.S. Open anchor site, and also host the championship in 2034, 2042 and 2049, along with the U.S. Women’s Open Presented by Ally in 2028 and 2038, the Walker Cup in 2033 and the U.S. Women’s Amateur in 2046
🛠️ 2023 Renovations (Gil Hanse & Jim Wagner)
- Tees extended: ~150 yards added (e.g., holes 3, 11) pushing yardage to ~7,372 yd .
- Green expansions: Restored to historic edges, enabling more pins in tough locations.
- Bunkers reshaped: Restoration of classic forms and enhanced drainage.
- Fairway realignment: A few widened areas to balance challenge and playability
🔍 What to Watch
- Greenspace: Are expanded greens influencing strategy—being used aggressively or conservatively?
- Driving accuracy: Funnel into fairways or rough/bunkers—error costs are steep.
- Final hole drama: The 18th demands heroism—a strong drive and an uphill approach to finish.
- Oakmont is primed to be a merciless battleground: length, speed, precision, and nerve will separate contenders. It’s the ultimate examination, true to U.S. Open tradition.
2024 CHAMPION: Bryson DeChambeau captured his second U.S. Open Championship in June at Pinehurst Resort & Country Club’s Course No. 2 in a one-stroke victory over four-time major champion Rory McIlroy. The 30-year-old Grapevine, Texas, resident by way of Clovis, Calif., joined a select group of 23 golfers who have won multiple U.S. Open titles, a list that includes Ben Hogan, Bob Jones, Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods and Payne Stewart. Like Nicklaus and Woods, he also owns U.S. Amateur and NCAA individual crowns to go along with his National Open victories. DeChambeau, who carried a three-stroke advantage into Sunday’s final round, survived a wild back nine that saw him lose the lead to McIlroy before executing a perfect bunker shot from 54 yards on the par-4 18th hole to 4 feet. It came some 15 minutes after McIlroy, seeking his first major title in 10 years, lipped out a 4-foot par putt for his third bogey over his final four holes, dropping him one shot behind DeChambeau. After DeChambeau, whose short game was impeccable the entire week, holed the putt with McIlroy watching from the scoring area, the packed grandstands around the 18th green erupted in one of the loudest roars of the week. It capped off a 1-over-par 71 for a 72-hole total of 6-under 274. Tony Finau’s final round 67 matched Sunday’s lowest round and earned him a career-best tie for third with Patrick Cantlay at 4- under 276. Cantlay, an eight-time PGA Tour winner still seeking a first major title, fired a 70, while Matthieu Pavon, the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open champion who had never been in a final-round final pairing in a major, posted a 71 for solo fifth at 277.
Let’s take a look at this year’s betting selections. Last week we cashed our 2nd outright victory of the year with Ryan Fox winning the RBC Canadian Open in a playoff over American Sam Burns. I have a future play on Bryson at +1500 placed back in April but with the current odds being nuked down to single digits. Play with caution. All bets outside of Scottie, Bryson & Aberg are placement bets that are available on BET365. If you do not have BET365 in your state, Top Ten bets will suffice.
Bet365 and 8 Places in Golf Betting Breakdown:
Bet365 is known for offering “Each Way Extra” in golf betting, which allows users to adjust the number of places paid out on an each-way bet. This means you can choose to have your “place” bet apply to a wider range of finishing positions (e.g., Top 8) for extra security, though at reduced odds. Specifically, “8 places golf” at bet365 refers to the option of placing an each-way bet where the “place” portion of your wager will be successful if your selected golfer finishes within the top 8 positions in the tournament. This is particularly common for major championships, where bet365 has a history of offering this extended place term.
How it works:An each-way bet is split into two parts: a “win” bet and a “place” bet.
With “8 places golf,” the “place” bet is a wager on your selected golfer to finish in the top 8 positions.The payout for the “place” bet is a fraction of the outright win odds, typically 1/5.
This means you get a reduced payout if your golfer finishes within the top 8 (but doesn’t win) compared to winning outright, but it provides a higher probability of getting a return on your bet.
Example: Imagine you bet £10 each-way on a golfer at 100/1 odds with 8 places at 1/5 odds. Your total stake is £20 ( £10 for the win bet and £10 for the place bet).
Win bet: If your golfer wins the tournament, you get a payout on the win part of your bet (£10 x 100/1 = £1000 profit + £10 stake back = £1010 total return).
Place bet: If your golfer finishes within the top 8 positions (but doesn’t win), you get a payout on the place part of your bet. The place odds are 1/5 of the outright odds, so 1/5 of 100/1 is 20/1. You would receive £10 x 20/1 = £200 profit + £10 stake back = £210 total return.
Combined win and place: If your golfer wins the tournament, you also cash the place part of the bet (since they finished in the top 8). Your total return would be the sum of the win and place payouts. In summary, bet365 offering “8 places golf” is a favorable option for golfers as it increases the potential for a return on your wager by extending the number of finishing positions that qualify for a payout, particularly in major championships.
With that out of the way, let’s go ahead and break down the picks for this week!
- ALL BETS ARE ON 365 UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED, ODDS SUBJECT TO CHANGE
🥇 Scottie Scheffler (+325 @bet365 Enhanced Win Market)
- Strokes‑Gained Total: +2.687 per round — ranked 1st on the PGA Tour
- SG: Tee‑to‑Green: +2.328 (1st)
- SG: Approach: +1.30, up from +1.27 last season
- SG: Putting: +0.359 per round, now ~27th in rankings
- Insight: Superior ball‑striking across all disciplines with improved putting; elite all‑around game ideal for major setups.
- Win Probability Estimate: ~15–18%.
🧩 1. Unstoppable Form & Peak Confidence
- Currently the consensus favorite, sporting extremely short odds (around +275)
- Coming off a dominant season: three wins in his last four starts, including the 2025 PGA Championship and a TPC scoring record at Byron Nelson
- His major performance: two Masters titles (2022, 2024) and the 2025 PGA—he’s in the hunt for a Grand Slam
🎯 2. Elite Strokes‑Gained Profile
According to Data Golf and PGA Tour stats:
- Total SG: +2.687 (1st on Tour)
- SG: Tee‑to‑Green: +2.328 (1st) dominates the driving, approach, and short game
- SG: Off‑the‑Tee and SG: Approach: both ranked 1st; SG: Putting is around 27th (≈+0.36/round)
- SG: Around‑the‑Green is mid-pack (≈43rd)
🌳 3. Oakmont Fit — Ball‑Striking & Accuracy
- Oakmont demands precision over punishing rough and fast greens, emphasizing SG OTT and approach accuracy (~70% accuracy‑driven SG off the tee).
- Scheffler’s elite ball-striking and accuracy align perfectly with this setup, making him one of the few players totally built for Oakmont.
🧠 4. Mental Edge & Major Prowess
- Winning three majors in ~15 months puts him in rare company (only Tiger Woods previously done similar before age 29)
⚙️ 5. Versatile Skill‑Set & Damage Control
- Even during weaker starts, his ball‑striking remained elite—SG: OTT and Tee‑to‑Green always stood out.
- His putting has noticeably improved, moving into top-30 in SG Putting (~+0.36–0.44/round) .
- His command around the greens and bunker play is solid, rounding off his attacking prowess.
SUMMARY:
Scottie Scheffler is perfectly built for Oakmont’s punishing setup, which demands elite ball-striking, driving accuracy, and mental resilience. He leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Total (+2.687) and Tee-to-Green (+2.328), excelling in both long and mid-iron precision—essential for navigating Oakmont’s narrow fairways and lightning-fast greens. His improved putting (+0.359 SG) adds a critical layer to his all-around dominance. With three major wins in the last 15 months and a game that thrives under pressure, Scheffler enters Oakmont as the most complete and consistent player in the field.
🏆 Repeat Champion Bryson DeChambeau (+750 @ bet365)
- Defending U.S. Open champion, he won at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2024 and Winged Foot in 2020, showcasing his ability to convert in major moments.
- Aiming to become the first back-to-back U.S. Open winner since Brooks Koepka in 2018.
⛳ 2. Course Fit — Distance Meets Precision
- Oakmont is set up as a par-70, 7,372 yards, with punishing rough, narrow fairways, lightning-fast greens and over 175 bunkers.
- Historically, winners gain ~70% of SG OTT from accuracy, not just length.
- In recent majors, Bryson has averaged +0.569 SG OTT (last 5 events) and +0.484 SG Putting, showing both reach and touch.
🏹 3. Accuracy Under Pressure
- At Winged Foot and Pinehurst, he famously won despite sub-60% fairways hit (~57%)—by powering irons and converting putts.
- That stealth approach—massive distance mixed with course-savvy shot-making—is a proven path at grueling majors.
🔧 Ball-Striking and Scrambling
- DataGolf places him in the top tier for ball-striking and approach, ranking 3rd in U.S. Open power rankings.
- His ability to “bomb-and-gauge” puts even long misses in play and mitigates Oakmont’s brutal rough.
🛠️ Recent Form in Majors
- Tied for 5th at the 2025 Masters and co-runner-up at the PGA Championship.
- Adding to his past U.S. Open success, he’s finished T6 or better in 5 of the last 6 majors.
💥 Mental & Physical Edge
- Known for explosive starts: gained +5.58 strokes through front nine in recent PGA events.
- His aggressive playstyle and clutch presence (think Pinehurst 2024) test leader nerves and build tournament momentum.
🧠 Course Commentary & Adaptability
- Called Oakmont “scary,” raising mental toughness flags—but effective adaptation follows.
- His strength combined with measured planning (bombing plus smart iron play) suits Oakmont’s punishing architecture.
🎯 Summary
Bryson DeChambeau combines elite length, iron precision, clutch putting, and proven major resilience—a rare mix tailor-made for Oakmont’s brutal test. His ability to sacrifice some fairway accuracy in exchange for out-driving opponents has succeeded previously, and his recent SG trends show he can deliver both in the long game and on the greens.
Even with mental strain (calling Oakmont “scary”), his track record indicates resilience and adaptation under pressure. All signs point to him being one of the few players in the world capable of successfully repeating as U.S. Open champion.
🥈 Shane Lowry (+3300) ⅕ 8 Places @ BET365)
- Course History: T2 at Oakmont in 2016 U.S. Open
- SG: Tee‑to‑Green: +1.464
- Driving Stats: Strong accuracy (mid‑20s percentile)
- Insight: Familiarity with Oakmont’s challenges and accuracy off the tee provides edge.
- Win Probability Estimate: ~3–5%.
🥉 Harris English (+6000 ⅕ 8 Places @ BET365)
- SG: Putting: +0.441 per round (27th on Tour)
- SG: Tee‑to‑Green: Top‑50 level; span stats also show strong SG here.
- Insight: Consistent performer, handles greens well, mentally steady under pressure.
- Win Probability Estimate: ~2–4%.
🟢 Russell Henley (+5000 ⅕ 8 Places @ BET365)
- Recent Form: Winner at Arnold Palmer Invitational; Top‑10s at RBC Heritage and Memorial
- SG: Approach: +0.606 (16th on Tour)
- SG: Around‑the‑Green: +0.356
- Driving Accuracy: ~67.7% (tied 12th)
- Past Majors: T7 at 2024 U.S. Open
- Win Probability Estimate: ~2–3%.
🟡 Cameron Davis (+15000 ⅕ 8 Places @BET365)
- SG: Approach: +0.278 (5th) in 2025
- SG: Putting: +0.052 over the last 5 events
- Insight: Strong ball‑striker and scrambler; less consistent total SG may limit upside.
- Win Probability Estimate: ~1–2%.
🟡 Tyrrell Hatton (+4000 ⅕ 8 Places @ BET365)
- Performance under pressure: Strong bogey avoidance—only ~16.7% hole bogey rate; ~30.25 putts/round avg
- Insight: Scrappy, tenacious with controlled swing—particularly suited for tight, penal layouts.
- Win Probability Estimate: ~1–2%.
🟢 Ludvig Åberg (+3500 @ DraftKings)
- Recent Total SG (last 5 events): +0.719
- Putting: +0.028 SG (marginal)
- Ball‑striking & Distance: Ranked ~7th in total SG, 14th off the tee, 6th in approach 75–100 yd, 4th in driving, +2.855 off the tee and +5.432 approach in Genesis win.
- Insight: Blends length and iron precision; putting is just adequate.
- Win Probability Estimate: ~2–3%.
🟡 Keegan Bradley (+6600 ⅕ 8 Places @bet365)
- U.S. Open Finishes: T7 at 2022 U.S. Open
- SG Profile: Strong ball‑striking and scrambling from prior Data Golf narrative; exact stats not recently available.
- Insight: Comfortable in penal setups, scrambles well under U.S. Open pressure.
- Win Probability Estimate: ~1–2%.
🟡 Patrick Reed (+8000 ⅕ 8 Places @ BET365)
- Major history: T4 at 2018 U.S. Open; frequently strong in major environments.
- Insight: Known competitor who thrives in adversity and major grind scenarios.
- Win Probability Estimate: ~1–2%.
✅ Summary Stats & Metrics
| Player | Verified Key Metrics | Win % Est. |
| Scottie Scheffler | SG Total +2.687; Tee‑to‑Green +2.328; Approach +1.30; Putting +0.359 | 15–18% |
| Shane Lowry | Tee‑to‑Green +1.464; Oakmont ’16 runner‑up | 3–5% |
| Harris English | Putting +0.441 (27th); stable tee‑to‑green | 2–4% |
| Russell Henley | Approach +0.606; ARG +0.356; Accuracy ~67.7%; T7 ’24 USO | 2–3% |
| Cameron Davis | Approach +0.278 (5th); Putting +0.052 last 5 | 1–2% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | Strong bogey avoidance; 30.25 putts/round | 1–2% |
| Ludvig Åberg | Total SG +0.719; tee‑to‑green +2.855; approach +5.432; putting marginal | 2–3% |
| Keegan Bradley | Oakmont ’22 T7; strong scrambling | 1–2% |
| Patrick Reed | US Open T4 ’18; major competitive toughness | 1–2% |
Best of luck to all those reading and enjoy the U.S. Open carnage!