Probably one of the slower Mondays we’ll get all year so let’s just make the most of it and stay positive about Opening Day coming in two weeks.
Today’s big topic is a follow-up to Bleacher Nation’s follow-up to Sahadev Sharma’s recent article about Pete Crow-Armstrong. Specifically whether or not he would/should/could be extended and the underlying mechanics.
Here’s the original from The Athletic as quoted in Bleacher Nation
“With their current budget structure, the Cubs front office would be wise to approach Crow-Armstrong about the possibility of an extension. There is always a risk that negotiations don’t go as hoped and the player comes away with a sour feeling about the organization. The player could also not live up to the hype.
But the payoff if the player breaks out would be huge. It’s how Atlanta has built such a strong team and a strategy many smaller-market teams around the league use to compete while staying within their spending limits. Bringing this to Crow-Armstrong and his agents at CAA is something the front office would be open to doing this spring.”
I don’t think you’re going to find anybody who disagrees with any of this. Every educated Cubs fan is smart enough to remember the Rizzo extension and how that helped spend money on free agents. And all of us are smart enough to look at PCA and see a future superstar with or without the .270+batting average.
So for purposes of a good follow-up to the original follow-up discussion, let’s assume the Cubs offer an 8-year, $88,000,000 extension
- Does an extension change the way he plays? Specifically, does the absence of arbitration/free-agency alter his motivation enough to negatively impact performance? I don’t think so at first. But it’s a near-inevitable problem down the road. Especially if he turns out to be a consistent 5-6 WAR player. Then it’s impossible to avoid the negative thoughts that come with being underpaid in a league that perpetually overpays. But upfront I think it’s a boost to give the 23-year old $10M a season, and I don’t think that boost turns negative with respect to being selfish or cocky or arrogant. He’s already got that in spades. So if anything, the money would validate his self-confidence and probably move him closer to his potential faster. Ultimately though he’s going to be annoyed jut like Rizzo when the day comes that he’s underpaid based on where his free-agency would have put him. That’s the double-edge sword to extending someone this early.
- Does he have enough service time to warrant an extension? Or do we need to see more from PCA? We’ve seen plenty and we don’t even work for the Cubs. This isn’t our job and the natural reaction is YES ABSOLUTELY. So I can only imagine how quick it took Cubs scouts and people who know much more to feel this strongly about his talent. He’s definitely good enough right now to project for a decade, which in itself is enough to even consider an extension.
- Do we have the budget to afford an extension? I know we have the money, but the question is whether or not we have the budget which is much different in Tom Ricketts’s fucked up world. In that sense, we should have the money because we’ve missed out on every big name we pursued this winter while simultaneously shedding Cody Bellinger’s salary. Initial projections say the difference should be about $56M less this year in salary. So where does that money go if anywhere? A modest investment in bitcoin would probably cover the duration of PCA’s extension, and while I’m kind of joking, I’m also kind of serious in that it’s not hard at all to find the money to lock up PCA for a long time. So yes they obviously have the money but it’s unclear if Tom Ricketts would add it to the budget or continue his natural evolution into Scrooge McDuck.
- Should PCA sign an extension? I probably would not for a number of reasons. Notably is that you don’t give up free agency years in your late 20’s and he’s on track to be a free agent in 2031 by age 29. Signing an extension would probably go for 8 years like all the other young outfielders: Corbin Carroll, Ronald Acuna, Michael Harrison, Jackson Chourio. So we’d assume he’s missing out on age 29 and 30 seasons to negotiate a free agent contract and that’s objectively a huge consideration.
- Reason #2 I Don’t Sign An Extension: the Cubs haven’t shown any reason to be serious contenders in Free Agency, and I wouldn’t give up my best years for a team trying to be mediocre. If PCA is serious about winning, then he should consider other options in the long-term based on everything we’ve seen from our ownership. There’s absolutely no reason to believe they’re ever going to spend at the top of the market, and over time it’s going to entrench the Cubs in the 2nd-tier of Major League Baseball. And that’s best case scenario. So if I’m PCA, I’d be cautious about the Cubs long-term plans and how much they’ll be demanding from me as the face of the franchise. And not for nothing, I don’t know of any former player from the Ricketts era that would go out of their way to speak positively about the organization, which is kinda sad to think about.
- Reason #3 I Don’t Sign An Extension if I’m PCA: the market for good outfielders is exploding to the point that you’d be stupid to sign away any years including arbitration. Just play out the contract and hope the players union makes progress after the 2026 season when everyone goes on strike. It would be so dumb to give up years before the next CBA and then only find out that you screwed yourself.
- The best route to maximize individual performance is for PCA to pursue free agency. That gives him the most incentive to play hard everyday for a number of years, and that’s exactly what we want as fans. If the Cubs have enough money to compensate PCA appropriately then hopefully they do just that. If not, then he can go somewhere else and we’ll have benefited from the best 6 years of his career.
- Orrrrrrr just overpay right now because you can.
So that’s where we stand on the PCA extension.
It would be a huge win for the Cubs front office provided PCA doesn’t fall off a cliff over $10M a season.
In the same respect, it would be kind of stupid for PCA to give up age 29 and 30 free agency years without getting a truckload of cash.
Ultimately the Cubs have enough money to prevent this conversation from ever taking place and that’s probably the most important takeaway. If Tom Ricketts spent like a real billionaire then Pete Crow-Armstrong would spend his career in a Cubs uniform and we’d never think twice about it.
Instead, we’re over here nickel and diming our way into depth charts and it really makes me sick. Especially because we have all the cash to never worry about this shit.
My Final Verdict: Spend the money Tom. Make PCA a Cub for life.