I’m in Miami on vacation with Mrs. Carl and I’m about to put a beating on this hotel pool. But first I wanted to start the day with some highlights and talking points with the Cubs after a tough loss last night.
Starting off – the Monday Morning Cubs show will be out around 10am central time today. Me and Mahoney broke down a number of popular items like Dansby Swanson, 3rd base and the pitching staff. So check that out when it drops because it’s a great show and the best explanation I can give to a lot of these things.
Even so I’ll tackle some of them right now and hopefully we can all get on the same page:
- I talked extensively last week about leaving the batting order alone and people still want to change it when we’re leading MLB in offense through the hardest schedule in recorded history. You gotta have rocks in your head to not be happy with being the best in baseball
- Dansby Swanson looks atrocious with runners in scoring position with a 50% K rate in high leverage situations. That’s fucking bullshit but he’s a better hitter and player. He’s also extremely streaky in his career and prone to go weeks looking terrible. I think it’s because he thinks too much on the field, which is a huge advantage on defense but can slow him down in the box. He looks so slow and mentally compromised.
- Even so – you can’t do anything but start him every day. There’s no rest days when he’s healthy and there’s a zero point zero point zero chance he spends a non-injured day in the minors working on his game.
- Should he hit 5th? Probably not right now but I don’t think you change the order because it means changing it for someone else too. You can’t move the catchers because they’ve been outstanding. You can’t move Nico because he doesn’t hit for power. You can’t move Pete because he’s the best player in the lineup and moving him is real stupid when he’s breaking out in real time. And then we don’t have a 3rd baseman and they usually hit 9th.
- Next option is changing Happ to 5th and moving PCA to 1st which I think sounds good on paper and should be the move in the 2nd half if Swanson is still below Mendoza. But right now that just doesn’t make sense because it’s still early. Guys are doing well.
- Alternatively, if you move PCA to leadoff that would be stupid because he doesn’t see pitches. He murders them. And you want a guy who sees pitches at the top of this batting order more than any other. Pete Crow Armstrong is not that guy right now whereas Ian Happ is leading MLB in pitches seen this season. Does that make sense?
- 2-3-4 has been sensational in the first month but what if that cools off? Are you moving Seiya to the 6th hole? Don’t answer that. It’s more of a though exercise on where you draw the line for moving the lineup around. And then consider that against the primary reason you stay consistent = it benefits the players. So what’s next?
- Cubs lineup looked bad for 2 games with terrible offensive conditions. Jameson Taillon kept us in it all night. Ben Brown did not on Saturday. We lost both games in two different ways. Don’t overreact on an Off Day.
- Speaking of which Jameson Taillon has been sensational. I loved his presence last night and it was the first time I really felt watching him like we’re in good hands vs. a solid veteran making a professional start. It’s a nuanced distinction so maybe this is easier: last night he really felt like A Guy for the Cubs vs. someone just trying to be A Guy at some point
- The Phillies are a solid club
- The Dodgers are much better and we own a 4-3 season series victory over them. That should mean more than losing two-in-a-row to Philadelphia.
- The bullpen doesn’t throw a ton of strikes but we don’t have an elite bullpen. It’s okay. It can improve over time as guys become more comfortable with their playing time. I think there’s a lot of head trash in the group and I think it’s just a matter of time for a couple guys to really emerge and there to be role clarity. Until then we’re probably going to see more inconsistency. Just keep in mind we have no existing bullpen culture going into this year and it’s going to take a couple months if not longer to ever establish it.
- I’m warming up on Craig Counsell
- I think we’re undefeated in starts missed by Justin Steele and that’s one of the biggest stats we need to follow to win the division
- Keep an eye on the Cincinnati Reds because they’re rolling as I predicted 2 weeks ago in a blog about Tito Francona
Last thing just a quick note on the schedule.
I know it’s getting easier but it’s still Major League Baseball. The Brewers are still going to play us hard and the Pirates have some elite arms. By no means is it a guaranteed series win just because the teams are subpar compared to the top of the national league. Going 3-3 is frustrating but ultimately okay in the grand scheme. So long as we don’t shoot ourselves in the foot, I’m simply interested in good competitive baseball.
That’s what we got yesterday even in a loss and that’s okay in the long run. Just stay extremely competitive and you’re going to see wins stacked.
What can’t happen is lackadaisical bullshit because the boys are crabby and uninspired and don’t want to play hard.
We’ve seen a lot of that over the years and I think this is the complete opposite of a team. So stay competitive and play your dick off and I think we’re 4-2 this week with momentum coming home from San Francisco.
Until then please stay positive about Dansby Swanson. He’s as connected to the Baseball Gods as any player I know and I think it’s a test for fans to see if we really deserve this great team. My opinion is yes but you guys could really screw this if you wrong the Baseball Gods. So play your part and stay positive.
More today on the Monday Morning Cubs Show.
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