Breaking Down The Genius Behind Matthew Boyd & Colin Rea

I’m trying to find the right graphic from yesterday’s game but it’s escaping me. That’s throwing a wrench in me publishing this blog but I think I’ve got my hands wrapped around the point I want to make enough to move forward with the take.

So while I’d like the evidence behind it, we’re just going to have to wing the substance and build some more trust here.

Basically the point is that Jed Hoyer is a genius for signing Matt Boyd and Colin Rea for less than $20M this year. They’ve been sensational and it’s entirely because they’re naturally difficult to square up the fastball. That’s the point of this blog. They both have very underrated fastballs.

It makes sense at surface level. Almost obvious, really, that you’d want your pitchers to have good fastballs because they throw them the most often.

What makes a good fastball you ask?

It’s probably more complicated than you realize.

The early and easy answer is velocity. You want triple digits because those are hard to hit. Right?

And then you want movement. You want horizontal or vertical and you want it to be induced and graphed nicely so you can chart the data into a pretty picture. And then you use that picture to circle a pitcher and say conclusively, they have a better fastball because it’s harder and moves more.

Those are the two things that almost any logical person would point to and that’s where it falls apart for me.

I like velocity as much as the next guy and no doubt I want to see some arm-side run on a two-seam and downward action on the sinker. No shit I want the movement and the velocity and everything in-between.

But you know what’s more important? Being difficult to hit. And that’s measured best by looking at what the opposing hitters do.

A fastball that’s difficult to hit could mean a thousand things:

• Having a good changeup
• Deception
• Repeatable location
• Late movement > Lots of movement
• Pitching to the top and bottom of a zone
• Consistent breaking stuff
• Pitching inside and opening the outer 25% of the zone

I can keep going but my broader point is that there’s so many things that go into making a fastball difficult to hit and most hitters would rank velocity towards the bottom. Because if that’s all you have on the list above, then it’s time to feast and a lot of hitters are hungry.

Don’t believe me?

Then please explain Shota Imanaga having one of the hardest 4-seam fastballs to face despite throwing 91mph. How does he get so much swing and miss when there’s high school kids watching him at Wrigley with objectively stronger fastballs?

And that of course goes back to the combination of factors. It’s a hard pitch to see. He throws complimentary breaking stuff to the bottom half of the zone. He throws his fastball on the edges of the strike zone so you rarely feel comfortable letting it rip. And when you do get a ball over the middle of the plate, it’s so surprising and different than many 4-seamers you’ll ever see and you end up missing it by inches:

Yokohama SP Shota Imanaga:
– 49:2 K:BB ratio in ‘23 (+1 IBB)
– Top Stuff+ in WBC per @enosarris
– Likely in MLB in ‘24
pic.twitter.com/WRwyVGUmiM

— Nostra Thomas (@TomTrudeau) May 24, 2023

All of this to say that Colin Rea and Matthew Boyd have been outstanding because they’ve got naturally difficult fastballs to hit hard. They’re for two different reasons but the logic still applies that they’re naturally hard to hit, and Jed Hoyer found them.

For Boyd – it’s in his pitch selection, arm action and capacity to throw inside to right handed hitters. He can show you a change over the plate that falls off the table. He’s got breaking stuff that works horizontally, and a 4 seamer that he commands very comfortably. The end result is below average results for the offspeed and breaking stuff, but elite fastball grades.

That would scare a lot of people, but Boyd throws off his fastball almost 50% of his pitches. If you had to pick one of those pitches to be elite, you’d want it to be the fastball.

One step further is his location. He throws the fastball to the upper 3rd of the strikezone, which is advantageous if you don’t throw hard. Specifically, here’s his heat map for pitches 88mph+

That’s really good shit for getting swing and miss on the 4-seam.

And another step further, these are his fastballs just from last night.

Now here’s the change ups:

They look like the same pitch to hitters and that’s what makes the fastball so hard to hit.

What’s surprising is how clear it is that he’s attacking upstairs with the fastball and down with the changeup. There isn’t even an attempt to disguise the strategy and it’s still working effectively. Even with an average change up, he’s stretched the top and bottom of the strike zone at least 6 inches both ways by commanding both parts.

And when you add it all together, it makes the fastball significantly more difficult to hit when it’s in the zone. That’s because you’ve seen so many above and outside. You’ve seen fastballs inside and off the plate. And then you’ve seen changeups down and away that fall out of the strike zone. There’s so much foreplay that when you finally get the pipe, you’re surprised into not squaring it up correctly.

The fact Jed Hoyer was smart enough to see this in such limited opportunities last year from Boyd off Tommy John surgery is categorically incredible. The Cubs obviously loved the way his pitch mix works together and it’s clear this is the first time he’s used his stuff like this.

Specifically just look at his spread from a September start last year.

So much of that is over the plate and towards the bottom 50% of the zone. Whereas he didn’t throw one of those last night.

That’s not accidental. That’s a complete shift in philosophy.

As for Colin Rea… it’s a lot simpler than Matt Boyd.

Where Boyd is using his pitches differently, Colin Rea is throwing different pitches entirely.

Specifically last year he threw 3 different fastballs:

• Sinker – 31%
• Cutter – 20%
• 4-seamer – 20%

So about 70% of his pitches were fastball derivatives.

This year those same pitches amount to about 70% but with a completely different spread:

• Sinker – 6%
• Cutter – 9%
• 4-seamer – 53%

A lot of that is adjusting from Korea where you’ll develop 3 different fastballs into a buffet of offerings. It would appear Rea went through that evolution after coming back to the states in 2023. He wanted to use the kitchen sink.

But lost in that is a bad sinker and a very good 4-seamer that he’s overlooking.

So much that the Cubs have completely scrapped his strategy and made him throw the 4-seamer in the zone

Look at the middle box. This is from 2025.

Now look at 2024 and 2023 combined…

NO FASTBALLS TENDENCIES IN THE STRIKE ZONE

BARF

PUKE

DISGUSTING

This is the biggest change in Colin Rea.

Educating him on the quality of his fastball, getting him to throw it more than his sinker and his cutter, and then getting him to throw it over the plate and challenge hitters more often for weak contact.

Compare that to before where he’s being cute with 9 different pitches and using them equally and trying to outsmart hitters.

That’s ultimately the big difference with Colin Rea and it’s so simple. It’s so easy. Why don’t other teams do this?

I’m not sure but I’m glad we have a front office that is willing to simplify a game that continues to become more complicated.

In this case we’re really just talking about throwing your fastball for strikes more often and making things more simple to execute. It’s change-up down and fastball up. It’s fastball in the zone when you’re down 1-0. It’s pitching with confidence because you have an elite defense and all that shit in-between.

And these two guys together are costing just $20,000,000 to fill rotation spots and be 5-2 with a 2.25 ERA in 11 combined starts.

I love it so much I’m going to keep this blog going.

My favorite part is Jed is doing this because Tom Ricketts has forced him to look harder and be more creative.

We don’t just hand out blank checks and hope for the best.

We target guys with certain profiles and attributes that fit our pitching development and strategy. And since Jed has taken the reigns, there’s no arguing his brilliance in building out an atypical starting staff.

If there’s one thing I’d change though it’s how much credit he gets from the rest of us. And for that I’m happy to publish this blog because he deserves it.

So put some respect on Jed’s name and never forget there’s a lot more going on than velocity and movement. If you don’t believe me then just look at the data yourself:

Colin Rea Statcast

Matthew Boyd Statcast

Go Cubs and don’t forget to check out this weeks MMCS